Vance says no agreement reached after marathon US-Iran talks in Pakistan

U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced late Sunday that marathon negotiations with Iranian officials in Islamabad have concluded without a formal agreement, plunging the Middle East’s fragile two-week ceasefire into a state of profound uncertainty.

Speaking to reporters on the tarmac before departing from Pakistan, Vance characterized the discussions as “intense and direct” but noted that fundamental disconnects regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear future remained insurmountable.

“As President Trump has stated, we extended an open hand for good-faith negotiations,” Vance said. “However, it has become clear that the Iranian delegation is attempting to ‘play’ for time rather than commit to the permanent dismantling of their war machine. We are not receptive to those tactics. The open hand can quickly become a clenched fist.”

Diplomatic sources close to the talks indicate that the primary “deal-breaker” involved Iran’s refusal to unconditionally relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz. While the U.S. and its allies, including British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, demand a “toll-free” international waterway, Tehran continued to assert its right to levy passage fees—a move Washington views as an illegal stranglehold on 20% of the world’s energy supply.

Furthermore, the inclusion of Lebanon in the peace framework remained a point of friction. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had reportedly demanded an immediate halt to Israeli strikes in Beirut as a condition for any long-term pact. Washington, however, has maintained a strict “decoupling” policy, asserting that the current ceasefire applies only to direct U.S.-Iranian hostilities and does not grant immunity to Hezbollah.

The failure to reach a deal comes amidst a backdrop of total U.S. military dominance in the region. Earlier this week, Gen. Dan “Raisin’” Caine reported the destruction of 90% of Iran’s regular fleet and the incapacitation of its command-and-control networks.

President Trump has already signaled that his patience is thin. In a social media post that rattled global markets, the President warned that if negotiations failed, a “Shootin’ Start” would follow—one that would be “bigger, better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

Vice President Vance is expected to head directly to the White House to brief President Trump and the National Security Council. While Pakistan’s foreign ministry—the mediator of the summit—called for “continued restraint,” the atmosphere in Washington suggests the administration is shifting its focus from the “open hand” of diplomacy back to the “Absolute Resolve” of military enforcement.

The two-week ceasefire is set to expire in days. Without a signed agreement in hand, the world now waits to see if the 2026 mandate for Middle Eastern stability will be achieved through the pen or the “next conquest” of a military that remains “loaded up and resting.”

Expert Commentary: Having watched the gears of Washington power for over two decades, I find Vance’s departure from Islamabad without a deal to be the ultimate litmus test for the 2026 Restoration; by refusing to settle for a “half-measure” that allows Iran to keep its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, the administration is betting that the sheer destruction of Iran’s war machine—as detailed by Gen. Caine—has left Tehran with no real cards to play other than diplomatic stalling, and the Vice President’s “not receptive” stance proves that in this new era of U.S. foreign policy, the “open hand” is only offered once before the “Shootin’ Starts” becomes the primary language of negotiation.