A decorated U.S. Army Green Beret has been arrested and charged with using top-secret information from a sensitive military operation to score big on prediction markets.
Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, allegedly wagered around $32,000 to $33,000 on Polymarket that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be captured — pocketing more than $400,000 in profits when the raid succeeded in January.
Federal prosecutors say Van Dyke, who participated in the planning and execution of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” had direct access to classified details about the mission to seize Maduro from a Caracas residence. He placed multiple bets on outcomes like U.S. forces entering Venezuela, Maduro being removed from power, and related events — all while sworn to protect that very information.
The Justice Department unsealed the indictment Thursday, charging Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential government information, theft of nonpublic information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and unlawful monetary transactions. He could face decades in federal prison if convicted.
After the successful raid, Van Dyke allegedly tried to cover his tracks by routing winnings through a foreign cryptocurrency vault and attempting to delete his Polymarket account with a false excuse about losing email access.
The case has intensified scrutiny on booming prediction markets like Polymarket, which have seen billions in wagers on major geopolitical events — including suspiciously timed bets during recent U.S.-Israeli actions in Iran. Polymarket says it flagged the suspicious activity itself and fully cooperated with investigators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also filed civil charges.
President Trump addressed the growing trend, saying he’s “not happy with any of that stuff” and comparing prediction markets to a global casino. FBI Director Kash Patel stressed that “no one is above the law,” while Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche warned that service members are trusted with secrets to complete missions — not to cash in on them.
This high-profile arrest highlights the national security risks posed by prediction markets, where real-world military operations can become tradable events. Van Dyke is expected to appear in federal court as the case proceeds in the Southern District of New York.
The breach has sent a clear message: those who betray the trust placed in America’s elite warriors will be held accountable.