An artificial intelligence model has generated a speculative forecast about the 2028 U.S. presidential election, despite official candidates not yet being known, drawing attention on social media and YouTube.
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The forecast was produced using Grok, an AI chatbot developed by the company associated with Elon Musk, after a YouTube channel asked the system to simulate a likely outcome based on a set of hypothetical candidates. The simulation included state-by-state projections, an electoral map, and projected vote totals for chosen figures from both major parties.
As the host explains, “In this video, I asked Grok AI to predict the 2028 presidential election and give us a map forecast.”
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In the end, Vance was predicted to take 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 212, according to the simulation; 270 are needed to win the presidency.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris currently holds the lead in early primary polling with 32 percent of the support, putting her ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has 23.8 percent. Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in third place, just shy of 10 percent, while Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro follow close behind.
The host notes that Harris’s resurgence may surprise some, given that “many people did write Kamala Harris off following her 2024 election defeat.”
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Recent polling indicates that she is regaining her advantage. Additionally, the betting markets reflect this positive trend, now suggesting there’s a 56 percent chance she will seek the Democratic nomination in 2028, a significant rise from just 11.2 percent a few months back.
“Today, it is more likely than not that she is going to run again,” the video states.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads early polling with 49.2 percent support, significantly ahead of Donald Trump Jr., who is trailing by 29 points. Senator Marco Rubio has 12.5 percent, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stands at 9.2 percent.
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According to the simulation, Vance is the clear favorite for the GOP nomination, with a 46 percent chance of becoming the party’s standard-bearer. Rubio follows with an 18 percent chance.
The host notes: “If nothing big changes, he will very likely become the party’s nominee in the next presidential race.”
Grok’s simulation begins by defining “solid” states as those with a margin of 15 points or more. Vance’s solid column includes the following states: Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.
The inclusion of Ohio marks a significant shift; once a key battleground, the state has trended sharply to the right, Newsner noted.
“It is not difficult to see that he will carry the Buckeye State by a solid 15-point margin,” particularly following Donald Trump’s double-digit win there in 2024, the host said in the video.
Harris’s group of solid states mirrors much of her 2024 coalition, showing some modest gains. She is projected to win the states of Washington, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Maine’s first congressional district by at least 15 points. Notably, the model predicts that Connecticut and Delaware will return to solid Democratic margins after experiencing narrower results in 2020.
After accounting for solid states, Vance leads with 139 electoral votes to 108. Additionally, the “likely” category, which contains margins between 5 and 15 points, further enhances his advantage.
He is projected to win in Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Alaska, and Maine’s second district. Florida and Texas are viewed as firmly Republican due to recent gains by the party, while Arizona, which was narrowly won by Trump in 2024, is expected to remain in Republican hands. With these solidly Republican and likely states counted, Vance would secure 246 electoral votes, leaving him just 24 votes short of the 270 needed to win.
In the end, Vance is expected to take 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 212, according to the simulation; 270 are needed to win the presidency.
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