President Donald Trump’s energy quarantine against Cuba is meant to bring down the communist government, which is at a breaking point in its fight for survival.
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The effects are hitting the 10 million people hard. The U.S. fuel blockade is making an economic crisis that has been going on for decades worse, making it harder to get water and making food and medicine shortages worse.
“There’s a number of epidemics rippling through the population right now, repression is increasing as the regime feels cornered, and they are not signaling any willingness to negotiate with the United States,” said Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.
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“These people are really, really bad guys, and they have shown this capacity to survive difficult crises,” he added. “I don’t think they can survive this one.”
Trump on Friday suggested the U.S. could achieve a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, perhaps mirroring America’s approach to Venezuela, where the military took out its leaders but kept the regime largely in place while demanding greater economic cooperation.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in leading the administration’s strategy and is said to be talking to the grandson of Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old de facto leader of the authoritarian government.
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Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, Castro’s grandson, is his bodyguard and is thought to be in charge of GAESA, the conglomerate that runs Cuba’s armed forces and controls a lot of the island’s economy. The Miami Herald said that GAESA had about $18 billion in assets and bank accounts that were not known about in 2024.
The meeting reportedly took place this past week on the sidelines of the regional Caribbean conference Caricom in St. Kitts and Nevis.
Rubio, speaking to reporters, signaled that the Trump administration is not demanding immediate regime change in Havana.
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“Cuba needs to change. It needs to change. And it doesn’t have to change all at once,” he told reporters Wednesday.
This comes amid the United States and Israel’s campaign against Iran, which began on Saturday.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Saturday that Secretary of State Marco Rubio notified senior congressional leaders ahead of the joint U.S. Israeli military operation against Iran. Leavitt’s statement, posted to X, came as critics questioned whether President Trump authorized the strikes without the required approval from Congress.
“President Trump monitored the situation overnight at Mar a Lago alongside members of his national security team. The President spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu by phone,” Leavitt wrote.
“Prior to the attacks, Secretary Rubio called all members of the gang of eight to provide congressional notification, and he was able to reach and brief seven of the eight members,” she added.
“The President and his national security team will continue to closely monitor the situation throughout the day.”
Leavitt did not indicate whether Trump would return to Washington or remain at his Florida residence.
The so-called “Gang of Eight” includes the Senate and House majority and minority leaders, as well as the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate intelligence committees. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) confirmed that the group had been briefed.
“The Gang of Eight was briefed in detail earlier this week about potential military action against Iran,” Johnson said, according to The Independent.
Under the 1947 National Security Act, Congress must be kept “fully informed” of significant intelligence activities.
However, according to the Harvard Kennedy School, presidents from both parties have interpreted that language to mean that notifying the “Gang of Eight” satisfies the requirement rather than briefing the full intelligence committees.
Leavitt’s comments followed criticism from Rep. Thomas Massie, R Ky., who wrote on X, “Acts of war unauthorized by Congress.”
Massie and Rep. Ro Khanna, D Calif., had planned to force a vote next week that would restrict Trump’s ability to launch strikes on Iran without formal congressional authorization.
As the debate over war powers intensified, Rubio announced Friday that Iran had been designated a state sponsor of wrongful detention.
Rubio said Trump signed an executive order last fall to protect U.S. nationals from wrongful detention abroad and that Congress later enacted the Countering Wrongful Detention Act of 2025.
The statement warned of further measures if Iran “does not stop,” including a potential “geographic travel restriction on the use of US passports to, through, or from Iran.